What Is Boris’ Plan B? And Will It Ruin Christmas (Again)?

Okay, so we’re doing these Q&A articles again?

Is that a Lateral Flow in your pocket or are you just pleased to see me? Yes, we’re back to explaining all the tedious covid rules again. And this time it’s ‘Plan B’.

Remind me, what was Plan A?

Plan A is basically life as normal, with the roll-out of vaccines and then booster jabs to ward off future waves of covid.

And that seemed to be going alright, right?

Yes. Despite having relatively high numbers of infections as the Delta Variant does the rounds, hospitals were able to cope with the workload (just about) and Britain has enjoyed far more freedoms than Europeans. With the exception of some travel hassle, since summer it really has been business as usual.

So what changed?

Omicron, the variant nobody knew about a fortnight ago, has gone more viral than a @munyachawawa Insta reel and caught politicians on the fly. The signs are worrying; the new variant is about four times more infectious than the Delta Variant and looks like it may evade some of the protections provided by the vaccination programme.

Noooooooo!

Well initial signs are also strongly suggesting that this variant is less nasty (the World Health Organisation say that there isn’t a single Omicron death yet) and also that vaccines should protect against hospitalisation and death while the booster should offer decent protection against infection.

Either way, we should know a lot more in the next few days as the scientists in Porton Down and over in the US get data from their tests as well as watching if things escalate or not in South Africa.

Hang on, so why are we doing Plan B now?

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Ask me again in a second. Firstly what is Plan B?

Whatever. What is Plan B?

At yesterday’s press conference the PM announced new measures on top of those that came online last week (mask wearing in shops and public transport).

From Monday the ‘work from home if you can’ mandate will come back. Facemasks are also back in all indoor public venues, like cinemas, theatres and places of worship from tomorrow (Friday). But not in pubs and restaurants.

The government will also be bringing in covid passes as a requirement to enter nightclubs and larger venues from December 15th.

Okay, well that doesn’t sound too bad

No, this brings us back in line with Wales and Scotland and isn’t particularly onerous. Most of Europe are already under far stricter control, but are also more vulnerable because their vaccination programmes are not as advanced as ours.

Right, and why are we doing this now?

Well that’s a good question.

Finally!

Yeah, so Omicron is on the march, and the plan had been to wait until we have more data before going into extra measures.

However, the Delta variant is creeping up too and it was clear that Professor Chris Whitty and Chief Scientific Officer Sir Patrick Vallance believe that we need some extra measures now to act to delay Omicron and fight Delta. And, as you’ve just noted, this isn’t that bad.

So the party’s not over?

It’s not a party, it’s wine and cheese

Is wine and cheese okay?

No, I was joking! And this gets us into conspiracy theory territory. The government is under extraordinary pressure right now, from the media, from the public, from the Conservative bank benches EVEN from the opposition because it looks increasingly like there may have been Christmas parties in Downing Street last year when the rest of us were stuck in isolation. Or hospital.

Some people (including Robert Peston at yesterday’s briefing, so not just tin-hatters) have speculated that the timing of this announcement may not be led by the science but the need to move the narrative along.

Didn’t Boris just have a baby like this morning?

Yes, the forward-planning in their media strategy is meticulous. Carrie Johnson gave birth to a daughter at University College Hospital overnight. It really is a rollercoaster life that the Prime Minister leads! I couldn’t handle the stress!

So Christmas. Is it on?

Probably. It all depends on Omicron. We should find out quite quickly if the new variant is going to spoil Christmas or not. IF it evades the vaccine (looking a bit less likely) and IF it’s more serious than Delta (also looking less likely) or IF it’s likely to put unbearable pressure on the NHS (and this is still very possible) then the government may be forced to pull more policy levers.

But Boris may not be able to recover from cancelling Christmas twice and it’s more likely that they’ll let Christmas go ahead and figure out what to do next, um, next. Like January.

It all depends on what happens with Omicron. Let’s hold our breath…